The market has recorded a strong run in 2021, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq up 14.41%, 12.73%, and 12.54% year to date (as of 6/30/21) respectfully. The S&P 500 registered its fifth straight month of gains. The Nasdaq posted its seventh positive month in the last eight, and while the Dow was red for June, it had previously notched a four-month high.

There are still risks ahead for the latter half of 2021. Choppy trading could ensue if the Fed starts talking about tapering its bond buying program or inflation readings prove to be too hot for the economy. Supply chain shortages and bottlenecks also need to be worked out, while extended unemployment benefits run out for many Americans in September. Don't forget the COVID situation and the potential for more harmful variants.

Oil prices are soaring. Currently at $75 a barrel, Brent crude is up 85% from November, propelled by the global recovery from the pandemic, OPEC keeping a lid on supply, and U.S. shale producers’ reducing their production in response to pressure from investors to cut spending. Long-term, the good times for oil producers may not last. Analysts expect prices to climb for a few more years — perhaps hitting $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 — before a drop as countries reduce their use of petroleum because of potential climate change concerns and the increase of electric vehicles. But don’t expect drastic supply increases. Saudi Arabia, the major power behind the group, may consent to modest hikes in production, but is wary of huge shifts — and enjoys the current trajectory of oil prices. However, OPEC recently has be unable to come to an agreement on oil production levels. Failure to reach a deal could mean crude could rise even higher, but OPEC+ unity may also break down, risking a free-for-all that could send prices crashing.

Emerging Markets saw a strong end to 2020 and an early boost in 2021, due to the weakening US dollar and eased political tensions with the United States following the new administration. However, after those boosts, they have been flat with the MSCI EM index only up 6.95% year to date. The flatness is due to their slow and uneven recovery from COVID, and regulation concerns like we are seeing with the Didi cybersecurity review in China.